Poll analyst discusses about assembly elections 2023 of India
Ballots and Beyond: Decoding the 2023 Assembly Elections
(Political commentator JVC Sreeram discusses the
impact of the 2023 State Assembly Elections, analysing outcomes, campaign
strategies, and lessons.)
This Cover Story was
published in Dec 2023 edition of PreSense
In an exclusive interview with Prime Point Srinivasan,
Managing Editor, PreSense, JVC Sreeram, a well-known political commentator,
poll analyst, author, and media personality shares the impact of the recent
State Assembly Elections held in November 2023.
He shares extensively on the campaign strategies followed by both the
major parties like BJP and Congress and the lessons to be learnt. Excerpts:
PPS: I know that you have been
predicting accurately the outcome of the State Assembly elections
recently. Can you summarize the recent State
Assembly elections' outcomes, focusing on major parties' vote and seat
shares?"
JVC: I will start with Chhattisgarh, which went to the
polls first. BJP gained 46.27% (+13.3%
over 2018 elections) vote share with 54 (+39) seats. Congress got 42.23% (-0.81%) with 35 (-33)
seats.
In Madhya Pradesh BJP secured 48.55% (+7.53%) with 163
(+54) seats. Congress got 40.40%
(-0.49%) with 66 (-48) seats.
In Rajasthan, BJP gained 41.6% (+2.92%) votes with 115
(+42) seats. Congress got 39.53% (+0.23%) with 69 (-31) seats.
In Telangana, Congress has won with 39.4% (+11%) with
64 (+45) seats. BRS got 37.35% (-9.5%) with 39 (-49)
seats. BJP secured 13.90% (+6.92%)
with 8 (+7) seats. BJP has increased the vote and seat share here.
Campaign Strategies
PPS: What were the campaign
strategies in these States by the major parties?
JVC: In Chhattisgarh, Congress focused on the welfare
measures implemented by Bupesh Bhaghel, their Chief Minister. BJP announced
their candidates well in advance. Modi Guarantee for increased procurement
prices to farmers, 12000 rupees for women per year has gained votes.
In Madhya Pradesh, BJP focused on women's welfare
schemes. Congress did not have proper
campaign strategies. Congress had a lot of factionalism. This led to a large
vote share gap of 8% between BJP and Congress.
In Rajasthan, the failure of the incumbent Government
to maintain law and order was the major issue.
Women rape issues were focused more by BJP. Congress gave a lot of poll promises like
subsidies for LPG and 12000 rupees for women, etc. Congress did not change the
candidates. Rajasthan is one State, where the people vote for Congress and BJP
alternatively. BJP focused on the
failures of the Government. Without a CM
face, they were able to win.
In Telangana, the campaign was specific. Congress utilised the anger against the
incumbent Chief Minister KCR and his family.
The BJP which was setting the narrative till January this year, was not
active after that. Their promise of OBC
CM came very late. However, they secured
8 seats, 7 seats more than what they got earlier. BRS party went to polls with their
implemented welfare schemes. However, it
did not help them because of the anger against KCR and the MLAs.
One common thread running in Telangana, Rajasthan
& Chhattisgarh was the failure of the incumbent governments to provide jobs
to youth which was promised before. Paper leaks had happened 18 times in
Rajasthan & in Telangana, Public Service Commission exams were cancelled or
postponed several times. These created disenchantment amongst youth which
resulted in them voting against the government.
Impact of Sabadgaba Comment
PPS: Do you think the Sanadhana
comment made by DMK has played any role in the election outcome?
JVC: Yes definitely. Madhya Pradesh is a Hindutva
State and Chhattisgarh is a soft Hindutva State. The comment made by DMK, an ally of Congress,
has played a significant role in the defeat of Congress in all three States.
PPS: BJP has made relatively
unknown faces as Chief Ministers in the three States won by them. What do you
say on this?
JVC: I politely disagree with you. Vishnu Deo Sai, the present Chhattisgarh
Chief Minister joined politics in 1989.
He is a two-time MLA and five-time MP.
He was a Minister of State in the Central Government. He was also the President of BJP in
Chhattisgarh. He is a tribal face of the
party. He is not an unknown
person.
As far as the Chief Ministers of Madhya Pradesh and
Rajasthan are concerned, they are hard-core RSS karyakarthas. They have been in the organisation since the 1990s.
The generational changes, what the BJP is looking for, have resulted in new
faces.
Telangana Assembly elections
PPS: Congress has won in
Telangana. What impact it may create in
the Southern States?
JVC: I feel Congress is strong in the Southern
States. In Kerala, BJP is not
there. In Tamil Nadu, BJP is trying to
grow. In Karnataka, Congress has
defeated BJP. I think Congress will get
sizeable vote share and seats in Telangana. In Karnataka, the dynamics are
changing, due to the alliance of JDU and BJP.
The anti-incumbency factor in Tamil Nadu against DMK may impact the
I.N.D.I.A alliance. We do not know how
much it may affect. It is a million-dollar
question. In Kerala, the fight is
between UDF and LDF. BJP with 12 to 15
percent vote share is not expected to win any seat. In Andhra, Congress is not there. I do not buy any argument that the South
would vote for Congress overwhelmingly.
Impact on General Elections 2024
PPS: Now that you have talked
about the South, how this Assembly election will have impact in the North
during the General Elections 2024?
JVC: When BJP lost these States in 2018, I have been
repeatedly saying that those elections were not the Semifinals. I always say that the route to Delhi is only
through Lucknow. The semi-final was
March 2022 Elections. Winning of BJP in
UP Elections in 2022 has set the narrative. Now BJP leaders and Karyakarthas
can go with confidence to face the 2024 elections.
PPS: Could the BJP's margin have changed, if the I.N.D.I.A alliance
formed in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh? Please elaborate.
JVC: No
No. I totally disagree with you. In
Chhattisgarh, there is no alliance for Congress. GGP, BSP, and small parties are there and
they are not the allies. BJP has secured a 46% vote share. In Rajasthan, if Congress had allied with the
small parties, there could have been some change. Not a major dramatic change. Already Congress had an alliance with
RLD. BSP is not part of Congress
alliance.
Lessons learnt
PPS: What are the lessons to be
learnt by BJP and Congress out of these State Elections?
JVC: BJP should announce candidates well in advance,
at least in the areas where they are not strong. This would help the party workers to plan
well. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh,
BJP announced the candidates in August itself and those candidates won. But in Telangana, ‘B form’ was given by BJP
in some constituencies only on the day of filing nomination. This is the major lesson that BJP has to
learn now out of these elections.
As far as Congress is concerned, they are clueless in
the Hindi belt. They have to find out
the organizational strength. Also, they
have to be very careful about their narrative.
In the name of appeasing minorities, they have allowed their partners to
talk against Sanatana Dharma. This has
affected their chances adversely.
PPS: In the Hindi belt, Congress
has nearly 40 percent vote share. What do you say?
JVC: In the two-party system, when one party gets
around 47 or 49 percent, naturally, the other party would consolidate and get
automatically 40 percent. In Madhya Pradesh
BJP got 49% and 47 in Chhattisgarh. The third parties were elbowed out. In the process, Congress is gaining. What Congress gains is now swing voters. This cannot be eternal. Congress has to work on its organizational
strength. Otherwise, these swing votes will go away. If Congress loses its organizational
strength, it cannot get back. What
happened in Bihar and UP? Congress has
lost organizational strength and is not able to come back.
Presently, in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and
Chhattisgarh, an alternative to BJP is only Congress. Even in Gujarat, the Congress
was the alternative to BJP. When the Aam
Adhmi Party entered, Congress lost their vote share to them. If Congress does not build up its
organizational strength in these three States, a third party like Aam Adhmi
Party may enter and walk away with the votes of Congress.
Please watch the full interview in the YouTuber
https://youtu.be/1Rf5dW8WtpE?si=RZM91tSFUJJ9G9qe
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