analysing the assembly elections 2024 held at Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir
2024
Assembly Elections:
Surprises, Strategies, and Lessons for Political Parties
By Prime Point Srinivasan, Publisher and
Managing Editor
(The 2024 Haryana and J&K elections reveal key
lessons for political parties on strategy, leadership, and voter outreach.)
This Editorial was published in October 2024 edition of PreSense
The
2024 assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir were events filled
with surprises, reversals, and important lessons for political parties,
particularly the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Early pre-poll
surveys indicated a significant victory for Congress in Haryana. However, the
situation changed drastically during the elections, resulting in a surprising
victory for the BJP. In Jammu & Kashmir, the results highlighted the
enduring strength of the National Conference (NC) and the struggles of both the
Congress and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). This editorial examines the
reasons behind these outcomes and explores the implications for upcoming
elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
A Review of Haryana Elections
In
Haryana, the BJP defied all poll predictions to secure a third consecutive
term, winning 48 out of 90 seats. Pre-election surveys had predicted a
comfortable victory for the Congress, which seemed poised to capitalise on
anti-incumbency sentiment. However, the BJP’s strategic adjustments changed the
electoral tide in its favour.
Several
factors contributed to this unexpected BJP victory. First, the party
successfully expanded its appeal to non-Jat communities, including the OBCs and
Scheduled Castes. This outreach proved crucial, as Congress had heavily relied
on its Jat vote bank and the leadership of Bhupinder Singh Hooda, sidelining
other important communities like the Dalits. The Congress’s decision to neglect
leaders such as Kumari Selja, a prominent Dalit leader, proved costly. In
contrast, the BJP’s choice to replace incumbent Chief Minister Manohar Lal
Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, helped the party mitigate
anti-incumbency feelings and widen its appeal.
Despite
Congress getting a vote share (around 39.1%), the BJP emerged
victorious with a marginal increase of vote share of approximately 39.9%. The
collapse of the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), which failed to secure any seat, with
a 13% vote share decline, further demonstrated a shift in voter preferences.
Congress's over-reliance on traditional Jat leadership, internal divisions, over-confidence
by not adding alliance parties, and lack of a broad-based strategy ultimately
allowed BJP to capitalise on the situation, reversing pre-election
expectations.
A Review of Jammu & Kashmir Elections
In
Jammu & Kashmir, the elections were held for the first time after the
abrogation of Article 370, making them a historic event. The National
Conference (NC) and Congress alliance won 48 seats out of 90, marking a strong
comeback for NC, which secured 42 seats alone. Meanwhile, the BJP dominated the
Jammu region, securing 29 seats, but struggled to make any significant impact
in the Kashmir Valley.
The
BJP's focus on development and security resonated with voters in Jammu, where
it retained a strong foothold. However, in Kashmir, regional identity and the
post-Article 370 political landscape overshadowed other issues, limiting the
BJP's reach. The Congress fared poorly, with just six seats, down from its
previous showing. The PDP, once a dominant force in Kashmir, collapsed, winning
only three seats. This decline can be attributed to the disillusionment of its
voter base following the abrogation of Article 370 and the party's failure to
adapt to the changing political dynamics.
Farooq
Abdullah and Omar Abdullah's leadership in the NC managed to tap into the
sentiments of Kashmir’s electorate, positioning the party as a defender of
Kashmiri identity. The BJP, on the other hand, secured its base in Jammu but
found it difficult to penetrate the stronghold of the NC in the Valley.
Lessons Learnt by Political Parties
The
results of these elections offer important lessons for both the Congress and
BJP as they prepare for future elections, especially in Maharashtra and
Jharkhand.
First,
a broad voter base is essential. The BJP's success in Haryana was largely due
to its strategy of expanding its appeal beyond its traditional base by reaching
out to non-Jat communities. Similarly, in the 2024 general elections, BJP's
confidence in securing 360 seats—Modi himself predicting 400—led to complacency
among party workers. As a result, the opposition gained ground. The Congress
now finds itself in a similar situation in Haryana. Relying too heavily on
traditional support from the Jat community and neglecting others, Congress
became complacent, while BJP and the RSS worked together efficiently, focusing
on non-Jat votes.
Second,
the importance of internal unity cannot be underestimated. Congress's internal
divisions in both Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir weakened its ability to
present a strong, cohesive front. This lack of unity not only diminished the
party’s effectiveness but also created opportunities for the BJP to consolidate
its support.
Third,
local leadership and regional issues matter. In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP’s
inability to make inroads into the Kashmir Valley, despite its national appeal,
showed that regional issues and leadership are crucial in sensitive areas.
Similarly, in Haryana, the Congress’s over-reliance on Bhupinder Singh Hooda
and its neglect of other communities led to its defeat. Political parties must
remain responsive to regional dynamics and provide local leadership that
resonates with voters.
Impact of this Result on Maharashtra and Jharkhand
The
results in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir will have a ripple effect on the
upcoming elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. In Maharashtra, where
coalition politics and regional concerns dominate, the BJP's success in
managing diverse voter bases in Haryana may prove beneficial. However,
Congress’s experience in forging strong alliances, as seen in its collaboration
with the NC in Jammu & Kashmir, may offer a blueprint for opposition
parties to form similar coalitions.
In
Jharkhand, where local leadership and community outreach are crucial, both the
Congress and BJP will need to adapt their strategies. Congress, in particular,
will need to broaden its appeal and ensure that it addresses local issues
effectively, avoiding the complacency that led to its downfall in Haryana.
The
political landscape is continuously shifting, and the lessons learned from
these Assembly elections will undoubtedly shape the strategies of both the major
parties in future elections.
Conclusion
The
2024 Assembly elections in Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir have provided
critical insights for India’s political parties. For the Congress, these
elections were a reminder of the dangers of over-reliance on traditional
leadership and support bases. For the BJP, they underscored the importance of
broadening appeal and the challenges of gaining ground in sensitive regions. As
the parties look ahead to elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, these lessons
will likely to guide their campaigns. The results from Haryana and Jammu &
Kashmir suggest that success will require careful attention to regional
dynamics, effective leadership, and a broad-based approach to voter outreach.
Podcast
Please watch the Podcast conversation based on this editorial generated by NotebookLM, AI tool of Google.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALgEZlVyUb8&t=327s
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